The area of convection (invest 90S) previously located near 18.0S 58.1E is now located near 18.2S 57.5E, approximately 130 nm north of mauritius. Enhanced infrared satellite imagery (EIR) depicts a slowly consolidating low level circulation center (LLCC) with deep convection building over the northern periphery. Environmental analysis reveals marginally favorable conditions for development with low vertical wind shear (10-15 kts), moderate upper-level poleward outflow, dry air to the south, and warm (28-29 c) sea surface temperatures. Global models are in fair agreement of gradual development over the next 24 hours with a westward track toward Madagascar.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 33 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1006 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high. See ref b (wtxs21 pgtw 070730) for further details.