An area of convection (invest 92W) has persisted near 10.4N 139.2E, approximately 82.2 nm northeast of yap. Animated multispectral imagery (MSI) depicts a disorganized broad area of flaring convection featuring moderate convergence along the northwest periphery. A 212330z ASCAT-c pass shows a broad circulation with strengthening winds along the northwestern periphery of the weakly defined area of convection. Environmental analysis reveals marginal conditions for development with high vertical wind shear (20-25 knots), moderate poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures. Global models indicate that invest 92W will have a northwestward track with steady development within the next 24-48 hours. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1008 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands has increased since yesterday. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development by tomorrow, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle to latter part of this week while while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward across the central Atlantic.

Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for slow development over the next few days as the wave moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. By the latter part of this week, the system is expected to slow down and turn more northwestward, and a tropical depression could form late this week when the system is over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean or near the Bahamas. Regardless of development, gusty winds and showers are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight and Tuesday.

Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.