The area of convection (invest 90A) previously located near 20.7N 68.2E is now located near 21.7N 67.9E, approximately 310 nm west-northwest of mumbai, India. Animated multispectral satellite imagery as well as a 10021200z GMI 89ghz microwave pass depict a partially exposed low level circulation center slowly consolidating and becoming embedded within flaring convection over the center and formative banding along western periphery of the circulation. Environmental analysis indicates favorable conditions for development with low VWS (10-15 knots), good equatorward outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures (28-30 c). Global deterministic models are in good general agreement on development over the next 24 hours with most models keeping the system at or slightly above warning criteria. The system is expected to have a sluggish westward track over the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 33 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 995 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with a trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the weekend while the system moves generally west-northwestward, remaining parallel to but offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.

Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.