A large and persistent area of showers and thunderstorms remains disorganized near and to the west of a broad area of low pressure located in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development over the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week if the system remains over water. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico, and interests there should monitor its progress. Regardless of development, the disturbance is expected to produce periods of heavy rainfall along portions of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico through the end of the week, which could lead to localized flooding.

Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue with a trough of low pressure moving westward across the Bay of Campeche. Some slow development of this system is possible before it moves inland over southern Mexico later today or early Thursday. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across portions of southern Mexico during the next day or so.

Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.